Issues Briefing: Will Labour fail its Transport Decarbonisation Test?
Introduction
The accompanying detailed Analysis Report was published on 19th May 2024, just three days before the unexpected announcement of a General Election on 4th July. Its analysis and recommendations are therefore fortunately available both before polling day and in relation to the First 100 Days announcements of a next Labour government. The report will be revised at the end of each month up to September, starting with its assessment of the Labour manifesto likely to be published around need June. Update articles can also be found on the Transport North website.
In the coming days additional useful information relating to a particular topic will be added. Comments/questions to info@transportnorth.org.uk
What is the ‘Transport Decarbonisation Test’?
In addition to the information on pages 1-2 of the briefing, see also pages 7-9 of the Analysis Report, and paragraph 3 of its executive summary.
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Transport emissions pathway: 1990 baseline
For a detailed assessment of this issue, and information sources, see Questions 1-5/ pages: starting at 10 in the Analysis Report
Transport emissions pathway & the UK carbon budget
For a detailed assessment of this issue, and information sources, see Questions 1-5/ pages: starting at 10 in the Analysis Report
Transport emissions pathway 1990-2030
For a detailed assessment of this issue, and information sources, see Questions 1-5/ pages: starting at 10 in the Analysis Report
Transport pathway ‘policy gap’
For a detailed assessment of this issue, and information sources, see Questions Q4/ pages: starting at 12 in the Analysis Report
Two Core policy stances: Roads & Aviation
Paragraph 6 of the Executive Summary notes that ‘the two dominant policy stances for roads and aviation have now been inserted within the DfT’s Transport Decarbonisation Plan (TDP – 2021), the strategy which is meant to be driving downwards the carbon emissions that those two modes have inflated.’ Then see Question 54 on page 55 for a summary description of these 3 policy frameworks.
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Roads & Aviation policy frameworks
For a detailed assessment of this issue, and information sources, see Questions 54-55/ pages: starting at 53 in the Analysis Report
Also: read the Executive Summary
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Technological interventions and Demand Constraint
For a detailed assessment of this issue, and information sources, see Questions 14-15 for roads, Q38 for aviation/ pages: starting at 19 (roads) 38 (aviation) in the Analysis Report
Implementation Test
Q44-49, pages starting at 46
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Labour and the Transport Decarbonisation Test
For a detailed assessment of this issue, and information sources, see Questions Q18 & 33/ pages: starting at 22 (roads) 33 (aviation) in the Analysis Report Also: read the executive summary
Roads: emissions pathway
For a detailed assessment of this issue, and information sources, see Questions Q6-7, 10, 16/ pages: starting at 15 in the Analysis Report
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Roads: traffic demand
For a detailed assessment of this issue, and information sources, see Questions Q8-9, 11-12, 14/ pages: starting at 16 in the Analysis Report
Roads: taxation & capital expenditure
For a detailed assessment of this issue, and information sources, see Questions Q15/ pages: starting at 19 in the Analysis Report
Roads: infrastructure capacity
For a detailed assessment of this issue, and information sources, see Questions Q13, 17, 18-20, 21-22/ pages: starting at 18 in the Analysis Report
Aviation: emissions pathway
For a detailed assessment of this issue, and information sources, see Questions Q23-27/ pages: starting at 29 in the Analysis Report
Aviation generally: Q33 Labour approach? Q37 no regulatory controls Q39 delayed monitoring Q40 negative impact on businesses & households
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Aviation: passenger demand
For a detailed assessment of this issue, and information sources, see Questions Q23-29, 34, 38/ pages: starting at 29 in the Analysis Report
Aviation generally: Q33 Labour approach? Q37 no regulatory controls Q39 delayed monitoring Q40 negative impact on businesses & households
Aviation: infrastructure capacity
For a detailed assessment of this issue, and information sources, see Questions Q30-32, 35-36/ pages: starting at 32 in the Analysis Report
Aviation generally: Q33 Labour approach? Q37 no regulatory controls Q39 delayed monitoring Q40 negative impact on businesses & households
Aviation: taxation & capital expenditure
For a detailed assessment of this issue, and information sources, see Questions Q34/ page: 34 in the Analysis Report
Aviation generally: Q33 Labour approach? Q37 no regulatory controls Q39 delayed monitoring Q40 negative impact on businesses & households
Public/Active Transport: modal contribution
For a detailed assessment of this issue, and information sources, see Questions Q41/ pages: starting at 42 in the Analysis Report
Public/Active Transport: funding constraints
For a detailed assessment of this issue, and information sources, see Questions Q42-43/ pages: starting at 42 in the Analysis Report
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Implementation & Delivery Risk
For a detailed assessment of this issue, and information sources, see Questions Implementation Q44-48/ Pages 46 Delivery Risk Q49-54/ page 49 in the Analysis Report
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Issues & choices for Labour
For a detailed assessment of this issue, and information sources, see pages: starting at 57 in the Analysis Report
Revising the Roads & Aviation policy frameworks
See the Analysis Report section ‘If policy frameworks have failed, change them!’ page 54, and also Question 55 ‘How should the transport policy frameworks be revised and made compatible with Net Zero?’
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Both technological innovation and demand constraint are necessary
Q9-11 (roads) and Q 38 (aviation), Pages starting at 16 and 36 respectively
Labour’s pre-election strategy: Unresolved tensions & competing priorities
Search the analysis report for ‘tension’, ‘contradiction’ and ‘competing’, which will provide quite a number of examples. See e.g Question 18 page 22 concerning the tension between Labour’s competing ‘economic growth’ and ‘decarbonisation’ objectives’
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Possible Labour responses to the Transport Decarbonisation Test it faces
Analysis Report Question 55 Pages 54 identifies revising the roads and aviation policy frameworks as key to Labour’s delivery of accelerated transport decarbonisation. ‘Issues & choices for Labour: a call to action’ page 58 describes a two stage process by which Labour could develop its response to the Transport Decarbonisation Test. Appendix 1 page 61 discusses how the development of a scenario approach can contribute to that process.
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Contact information
If you have any questions about the content of the Issues Briefing and accompanying Analysis Report; if you wish to query or report any possible incorrect data; or would like to discuss any of the issues around Labour’s transport decarbonisation test, just contact info@transportnorth.org.uk and we’ll always be pleased to respond.