Anthony Rae 21st August 2024:  When the environmental transport organisations (ETOs) grouping decided in 2023 to prepare the report Will Labour fail its ‘transport decarbonisation test’? updated today, its analysis was always directed towards the Labour Party, not because the ETOs has any party-political affiliation (it doesn’t) but rather because it was clear even then that Labour would very likely form the next government and therefore have to take charge of the huge task of transport decarbonisation that the Department for Transport under Conservative control since 2010 has certainly failed on.

Originally published on 19th May, just 3 days before the general election was called, it was decided that it would be better to wait until after the election to make contact about the report’s findings with the (considerably enlarged) crop of Labour MPs. This is what’s now been done with a mailshot to all 411 Labour MPs including the Prime Minister, Chancellor, and the transport ministers. Downloadable from the email is this 2 page briefing – that’s quite a condensing from the 85 pages of the report – with the question now Will the Labour Government pass or fail its ‘transport decarbonisation test’? From the briefing you can click through to both a 5 page factsheet and the original report.

The purpose of the 2 pager is to make Labour MPs more aware of the problems around transport decarbonisation that so far Labour has not grappled with, but also suggests some immediate opportunities that they can take to tackle them. The problems are:

Failed transport decarbonisation Transport is by far the UK’s largest emissions sector but achieved no decarbonisation in the first half of the 60 year period to Net Zero by 2050. This has the potential to prevent the Labour government from proposing a lawful Carbon Budget Delivery Plan by May 2025 as required by the courts.

Gaps in the Labour manifesto This did not acknowledge the existence of the ‘transport decarbonisation problem’. Labour has implied improvements to rail and bus services can resolve it; that is not the case. The Labour government appears to be supportive of continuing aviation expansion and roadbuilding, which are incompatible with Net Zero.

Unresolved tensions within Labour’s priority for economic growth This is focused on infrastructure investment but does road building actually boost the economy? The academic view is that‘this claim has never been proven’. Are there choices which make achieving renewed growth and decarbonisation compatible with each other?

The public expenditure ‘blackhole’ The Chancellor and Transport Secretary have already had to recognise that unfunded road schemes will have to be cancelled to maintain fiscal credibility: ‘If we cannot afford it, we cannot do it’. Labour’s public commitments to northern rail improvements are competing with the scale of the Roads Programme inherited from the Conservative government.

Then the briefing identifies three immediate opportunities for all Labour MPs to start facing towards those problems by:

– Making their views known about what should be the priorities for transport investment to the review of the transport infrastructure portfolio that has been commissioned.
– Contributing to the Chancellor’s pre-Budget consultation (closing date 10th September): ‘polluter pays’ taxation of transport could help fund essential public services.
– Engaging in discussions with transport and climate ministers about the new long-term strategy for transport Secretary of State Louise Haigh has proposed. That strategy must pass the transport decarbonisation test the briefing describes; failing it would only exacerbate the ’climate crisis’ she’s recently talked about.

We hope that Labour MPs will download the briefing, read it themselves or hand to a policymaker, maybe even take one or more of those actions.  We’ll be pleased to have a discussion about any of the issues the briefing and report have raised.