Anthony Rae 21st August 2024 The June update of the report Will Labour fail its ‘transport decarbonisation test’?, assessing the transport commitments of the Labour manifesto, reached this conclusion: ‘Just 10 days before the election Labour has finally committed to meeting the 2030 -68% NDC target, a monumental challenge. But for transport – the largest emissions sector of all, with the largest policy gap – it has not made an explicit decarbonisation commitment and has more than hinted that it’s heading in the opposite direction. For a party that will be in government for the next 5 years, this position is implausible and contradictory’.

Now – after election victory, with a 158 seat majority over all other parties, and a refreshed transport ministerial team now in place still headed by Sheffield MP Louise Haigh – what does the August update make of the initial decisions of the new government’s ‘First 30 Days’ in office? The revised analysis report is available here, and it’s now accompanied by a two page briefing for Labour MPs (with associated factsheet) also published today – see this linked article about that new briefing.

This time parts of the report’s text have actually been rewritten to include some of those decisions: principally the Chancellor’s 8th July statement initiating various ‘planning reforms’; her 29th July public expenditure inheritance statement announcing the government response to the £22bn funding ‘blackhole’ – two road schemes have been cancelled, and a review of the DfT infrastructure investment portfolio commissioned; Transport Secretary Louise Haigh’s announcement on the same day that it’s her intention to develop a ‘new long-term strategy for transport’, the stated objectives for which however did not include decarbonisation; and the joint decision by the Transport and Planning Secretaries to approve the expansion of London City airport, just 30 days after the Climate Change Committee repeated their recommendation against any airport expansion!

From its comprehensive analysis you’ll find these overall conclusions on page 3 of the main report:

● the Labour government’s approach to transport decarbonisation has still not been disclosed.

● Consequently it is not known what is the government’s intention towards the inherited, carbon generating policy frameworks for Roads and Aviation, which are embedded within the Conservative’s Transport Decarbonisation Plan, and which are ‘not fit for purpose’. If they remain in place it will not be possible for Labour to pass its ‘transport decarbonisation test’.

● The new ‘long-term strategy for transport’ that Transport Secretary Louise Haigh intends to develop must have decarbonisation objectives at its heart; contain policy frameworks for all modes which are explicitly compatible with NZ; and be built from transparent scenarios, and a modelled and accelerated emissions trajectory. It should be prepared in conjunction with the Climate Change Committee, and in compliance with its recommendations.

● From that basis, the DfT would be able to identify an increased contribution to the ‘effort share’ allocation within the ES&NZ Secretary’s process to prepare a lawful carbon budget by May 2025.

Alongside the revised analysis report you can also download the original 7 page Issues Briefing which summarises the report’s content, and a separate document with just the endnotes for easy reference (there are over 300!)